No matter what, this is an interesting canoe and an interesting thread. However, it seems that there's a good bit of supposition and circular logic going on here. This canoe certainly could be a Gerrish and even a very early one, but it feels like facts are developing out of thin air. What this thread seems to say overall is that this canoe has Gerrish-like features so it's probably a Gerrish, and because the planking pattern is a bit random, then it must be early. Therefore this must be an early Gerrish canoe, and all early Gerrish canoes had random planking patterns. Huh?
This could all turn out to be true, but right now we have a small collection of observations from a very small group of unmarked canoes. Please don't think I'm attacking anyone's ideas here. I'm not, and I'm very interested in all of this. Just trying to understand what we really know and be clear about what we don't. Recently Benson resurrected the discussion about how many wooden canoes have been built and how many survive. It seems that available evidence suggests that perhaps 2% of wooden canoes made survive today:
I am occasionally asked "What is the total number of wooden canoes that were made and how many still exist?" but I've never had a good answer. Kathy's recent article in the Wooden Canoe Journal mentioned that there are a total of 335 Morris canoes in her database. This gave me an idea of how to come up with a better answer to the original questions as shown in the table below.
There are some records from the Old Town Canoe Company which indicate that the highest Morris serial number may be 17262. Kathy's total divided by this total produces a nearly 2% survival rate. It appears that...
The survival rate is surely lower for the earliest builders and probably even lower for canoes that were built for hard use as was suggested for the canoe discussed here. Based on the survival of at least several of these random-planked Gerrish-like canoes, this would mean that hundreds if not thousands of these may have been built. In the beginning of a builder's career, how great was production? How long would it have taken to build hundreds of canoes? Why wouldn't the process have improved over that time?
As for the builder, is it possible that there are still undiscovered makers of wooden canoes? Extremely likely. We know about Gerrish partly because his business grew into an active one, he advertised, and he was written about. Surely there were a variety of others whose businesses didn't grow, who didn't advertise. Maybe they dabbled, maybe they moved on to other work, maybe they died early, but surely others existed beyond what we know from tags, ads, etc. And those early builders - commercial builders and others - were probably copying canoes they saw (birchbarks, Gerrishes, etc.). So maybe similar features (maybe identical features) came from multiple builders. This reminds me that back in the 80s or so, there were numerous examples of long-decked canoes attributed to Kennebec because people seemed to only know about Kennebec's K-Special. Because Kennebec made a long-decked canoe, then all long-decked canoes were Kennebecs. Precious few of those canoes turned out to be Kennebecks once we learned more.
Again, nothing negative intended. These discussions are part of how we learn and make new discoveries. I am excited, curious, and cautious. There may be fascinating new discoveries waiting to be had in all this.